Key Events: May 10-16

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The Human Rights Center Viasna reports that 17 years old Mikita Zalatarou, suffering from epilepsy, has been kept in solitary confinement in Belarusian prison. May 15, Mikita was “rearrested” and accused of an alleged “assault” of a prison employee. Mikita told his parents that he “won’t last in an isolation cell much longer.” In February 2021, the Belarusian authorities sentenced Mikita to 5 years in a correctional colony.

Analysis

Center for Liberal Modernism. Belarus: Revolution Suppressed or Postponed? Detailed chronological analysis of 2020 Belarus elections and consequent protests, the role of Russia, motivation of Lukashenka’s allies, role of opposition, and future of democracy.

Belarus and US

May 12: Atlantic Council. Time to sanction the Putin-Lukashenka “axis of autocrats”

The sanctions against the Belarusian regime alone might not be effective because of the large trade volume between Moscow and Minsk and the low trade level between Minsk and the West. The sanctions must also target Russian oligarchs and companies enabling Lukashenka. In addition, the US and allies have to send a clear message to the Belarusian people by supporting civil society and the Belarusian diaspora.

May 14: Charges against Belarusian opposition figure outrage US State Department

The US state department reacted to the formally announced charges against Belarusian opposition figure Maria Kalesnikava and called them outrageous. Kalesnikava was Viktar Babaryka’s presidential campaign manager. She gained notoriety for ripping her passport apart and refusing to be forcefully deported from Belarus by Lukashenka’s security forces.

Belarus and Europe

May 10: Eastern NATO members alerted to Russian threat, Polish president says

The president of the countries of the eastern flank of NATO met with US President Biden and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. One of the crucial questions discussed was the situation in Belarus and its development. All participants voiced concerns about Russia’s involvement in Georgia and Ukraine and other Eastern European countries.

May 10: Polish President on Belarus sovereignty and repressions against Polish community

Polish President Duda calls to support the sovereignty of Belarus, follow the political developments, and be ready to defend Belarus independence on an international forum. Duda remains concerned about the difficult situation of the Polish minority in Belarus. EU High Representative Josep Borrell said that the EU would impose more sanctions on the Belarusian government for persecuting Polish minority.

May 10: Lithuania to step up fight against cigarette smuggling

Cigarette smuggling has become a Belarusian state business, Lithuanian officials said. The smuggling of contraband cigarettes accounts for 20-30% of the cigarette market. In 2019, 82% of the smuggled cigarettes came from Belarus.

May 10: EU prepares new round of Belarus sanctions

The EU is preparing a fourth round of sanctions against senior Belarus officials in response to last year’s contested presidential election and could target as many as 50 people from June, four diplomats said. During the previous period of sanctions between 2004 and 2015, more than 200 people were blacklisted.

May 11: EU presents Tsikhanouskaya with assistance draft plan for Belarus

The Tsikhanouskaya team and the EU representatives drafted a Comprehensive Plan for Belarus. The plan provides macro-planning for the Belarusian economy and support for political and economic reforms.

May 13: Tsikhanouskaya’s advisor explains why EU is hesitant about sanctions against Lukashenka

Tsikhanouskaya’s international affairs advisor Franak Viachorka discussed the delay of the EU’s fourth package of sanctions on the Lukashenka regime. The EU has priorities in other regions and might not see large scale protests in Belarus, but “protests are impossible to organize under a fascist dictatorship,” Tsikhanouskaya’s office explained. Tsikhanouskaya calls for building a policy towards Belarus “based on values” because the Belarusians “have already shown the whole world they stand for new elections and freedom.”

Political Repressions in Belarus

Army: Belarusian Army officers targeted amid crackdown. The Belarusian Supreme Court found Captain Dzyanis Urad guilty of high treason and handed him an 18 years prison sentence for leaking a government document requesting the use of troops to crack down on peaceful protesters. The article mentions the names of another 16 people who received their sentences the same day at politically motivated trials.

Journalists: The European Association of Journalists, the Belarusian Association of Journalists, the OSCE, and the US Ambassador to Belarus, Julie Fisher, call for the immediate release of 16 Belarusian journalists held behind bars in Belarus.

Committee to Protect Journalists demands the immediate release of journalists Alyaksandr Burakau and Uladzimir Laptsevich, who were arrested for their coverage of the trial of members of the opposition and charged with “participation in an unauthorized event.” Deutsche Welle journalist, Alexander Burakov and Uladzimir Laptsevich, haves been sentenced to 20 days in jail in Belarus the following day.

Students: Eleven Belarusian students and a teacher are on trial and could be sentenced to up to three years in prison for alleged “conspiracy, preparation, and organization of and participation in activities that violate public order.” Journalists were not allowed in the courtroom.

Belarusian student Artsyom Vinkurau escaped to Lithuania. After being recognized as a political prisoner, he left Belarus by illegally crossing the border with Lithuania. He was facing a three-year politically-motivated sentence in Belarus.

Women: Since March 1, Belarusian police detained and fined more than 250 women under the newly adopted article of the Code of Administrative Offenses, which increased the fines more than 3 fold.

Belarusian doctor described her experience of serving a 105 day sentence for participating in peaceful protests. Anastasia was writing and sketching to stay “sane”, but the prison authorities eventually took away all writing, drawing supplies, as well as mattress and blankets.

Activists: Belarusian authorities extended the arrest terms of two Polish activists: the head of the Union of Poles in Belarus (ZPB) Andżelika Borys and the head of ZPB’s Vawkavysk branch, Maria Tiszkowska. The same measure might be taken in the case of other arrested union leaders.

Inside Belarus

May 10: Belarus’ gold and foreign currency reserves rose 4.9% to $7.3bn as of May 1 https://www.intellinews.com/belarus-gold-and-foreign-currency-reserves-rose-4-9-to-7-3bn-as-of-may-1-210185/?source=belarus Contrary to the predictions, Belarus’ gold and foreign currency reserves rose due to the gold rise increase. However, the population does not project confidence and continues to buy foreign currency as the conflict between the society and the acting president continues.

May 13: Inflation in Belarus at 4.6% in April

The National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) had to raise the prime rate to 8.5% to contain inflation and food prices increase.

May 15: Bloomberg: Belarus plans to raise $1.4 billion in Russian bond sale

Belarus will sell its debt to Russia in bonds for as much as 100 billion rubles ($1.4 billion). The Belarusian government is looking for ways to support the economy and counteract the effect of Western sanctions.

May 12: Ukrainian Defense Minister says Russian troops could invade Ukraine from Belarus

Even though the immediate danger of the Russian invasion into Ukraine appears to have been averted, Ukraine has to remain vigilant. The threat of future military aggression remains high, considering the possibility of Russia using Belarusian territory to launch an offensive, stated Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Taran.

Interesting Reads

News from the Belarusian Diaspora in the USA: BelarusBrief April Edition

Can Viktar become the next Lukashenka at the head of Belarus? Interview with author of book Belarusian Sniper

Opposition politician Pavel Latushka: ‘We are actually having fascist regime in Belarus’

Blaze in Budslau extinguished: Main Catholic sanctuary of Belarus was on fire