Key Events: May 17-23

Top Stories

May 23: Ryanair flight carrying wanted Belarusian journalist forced to land in Minsk

To arrest Raman Pratasevich, an exiled opposition journalist, Belarusian security forces hijacked an Irish airliner registered in Poland and flying from Greece to Lithuania. Right before Ryanair flight FR4978 could cross into Lithuanian airspace, Belarusian authorities used a combination of a fake bomb threat, instructions from Minsk air traffic control, and a military MiG-29 fighter jet to force the plane to land in Minsk. Pratasevich is now facing a death sentence on trumped-up terrorism charges. Please read BelarUS Freedom Forum Official Statement regards the hijacking of Ryanair flight FR4978 by Belarus.

May 22: Belarusian activist serving prison sentence for protests reportedly dies of alleged heart attack

EU spokesman Peter Stano demanded the immediate release of all political prisoners who are kept captive in Belarusian prisons after the death of one of the activists. Vitold Ashurak died of an alleged cardiac arrest while serving his sentence of 5 years for participating in protests. Vitold’s wife stated that he had not suffered from any medical heart conditions prior to starting to serve his term.

May 18: TUT.BY: Independent Belarus media website blocked after series of raids

In a move denounced by the Washington Post Editorial Board as the destruction of the vital channel of civil society, TUT.BY, the most prominent independent news organization in Belarus, was shut down by Belarusian law enforcement on the pretext of tax evasion and media law violations. The company’s offices and homes of several editors were raided, at least 11 employees remain in detention, the tut.by and affiliated hoster.by and av.by domains are blocked. Belarusians And The Market newspaper journalist Artsyom Mayorau was sentenced to 15 days in prison for reporting on the raid. Yulia Chernyavskaya, the widow of TUT.BY founder, is under house arrest.

May 22: Belsat satellite network reports raid by Belarusian security forces

Belarusian security forces broke into a Minsk studio used by Polish-based TV station Belsat and detained six people, including four cameramen.

May 18: Lukashenka signs law allowing Belarusian police to use firearms against demonstrators

Under the new law, the Belarusian security forces can shoot at the protesters, search personal belongings and vehicles, and obtain personal data without a warrant. The police will bear no responsibility for the use of physical force, firearms, and special equipment. The Belarusian officials also receive broad state protection guarantees.

Belarus and US

May 18: US Embassy Statement regarding raid on Tut.by and its journalists

The US Embassy issued a statement strongly condemning the Lukashenko regime’s raid on Tut.by’s offices and the homes of its journalists.

May 23: Diversion of Ryanair flight to Belarus and arrest of journalist

The US Secretary of State Anthony J. Blinken issued a statement strongly condemning the diversion of Ryanair Flight and subsequent arrest of Raman Pratasevich in Minsk.

Belarus and Europe

May 16: IBU publishes updated World Cup calendar for 2021/2022 season

The International Biathlon Union announced the relocation of the 2022 BMW IBU World Cup originally scheduled for Minsk-Raubichi, Belarus, citing the current situation in Belarus.

May 17: EU must find answers quickly or risk gradual Russian takeover of Belarus

As the Kremlin is patiently waiting for Lukashenka to complete the brutal mop-up of the civil society in Belarus and cross the point of no return in its relationships with the West, the EU needs to work out a new strategy quickly.

May 19: EU and UK respond to Belarus for cracking down on journalists

UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab and the EU spokesman called on the Belarusian authorities to end the campaign of oppression and harassment of journalists, demanded the release of all political prisoners, and voiced support for the Belarusian people.

May 20: UN High Commissioner appoints fact-finding mission experts

UN High Commissioner announced the appointment of three high-level experts to the UN Human Rights Office’s Fact-Finding Mission on Belarus to conduct a comprehensive examination of alleged human rights violations committed in Belarus since 1 May 2020. The first update is due in September 2021, and a comprehensive report in March 2022.

May 19: Tsikhanouskaya urges German Federal Prosecutor to open criminal case against Lukashenka

Belarusian opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya called on the German Federal Prosecutor to help move forward the case filed in the German court on behalf of ten Belarusian torture survivors. In light of the intensifying crackdown on free journalism and civil society, the Belarusian politician called out the importance of bringing the perpetrators to justice using international law.

Analysis

CEPA: Belarus’s neglected economy may yet bite Lukashenka’s regime

With even the wealthiest state-owned companies reporting losses due to the pandemic and the fallout from the political crisis, the problems of the Belarusian economy continued to snowball. Unable to operate the economy without subsidies, Lukashenka is facing a tough choice, compromising politically to continue to rely upon Russian financial support.

Confronting The Axis of Autocrats with David Kramer (podcast)

The host Brian Whitmore and David Kramer, former Assistant Secretary of State in the administration of President George W. Bush, discuss the imposition of sanctions on the Putin-Lukashenka Axis of Autocrats in the Power Vertical Podcast.

Chatham House: Myths and misconceptions in the debate on Russia and how they affect Western policy

The Chatham House report analyzes the Western mythological approach to Russia and the impact of misconceptions on policy making. The methodical deconstruction of 16 prevalent myths uncovers Russian political goals and values.

Atlantic Council: Putin and Lukashenka negotiate with actions, not words

Lukashenka is planning yet another visit to Moscow. Despite high expectations, the recent meetings have not produced any definite decisions. This is why the events between the summits become increasingly important for understanding the dynamics of the Belarus-Russia relationship.

Caernegie: Belarusian media onslaught leaves Lukashenka with no way out

Following the onslaught delivered by Lukashenka’s regime against the largest Belarusian news media website tut.by, the remaining independent media outlets are bracing themselves for the worst. Having crossed the red line in its relationship with the international community, the regime appears to be adopting a “nothing to lose” mentality in its urge to eradicate any remaining dissent.

Belarus and Russia

May 16: Lukashenka to meet Putin as Belarus need for cash grows

Lukashenka and Putin are planning to meet by the end of May. Facing a dire situation for Belarus economy, Lukashenka is seeking lower energy prices. Putin is pressing for the integration of Belarus with Russia before agreeing to lower energy prices.

May 21: Lukashenko suggests de-dollarizing EAEU trade in hydrocarbons

During the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, Lukashenka proposed to get rid of the US dollar in domestic trade of hydrocarbons in the Eurasian Economic Union, to support the exchange rate of the currencies and develop the common payment space to make transactions in national currencies in the EAEU.

Inside Belarus

May 17: NATO troops near the Belarusian border are preparing for a real war

Responding to the concerns of the Belarus Armed Forces Officials about the buildup of NATO’s military infrastructure in neighboring countries, Aleksei Dzermant, a researcher at the Institute of Philosophy of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus claims that NATO is preparing for a real war and tries to calm down everyone by saying a real war is impossible these days.

Mar 17: Belarusian national broadcaster will not air Eurovision 2021

Belarus’s national broadcaster refused to air the Eurovision song contest. Earlier, Eurovision rejected Belarusian entry songs citing their political overtones. Belarus nominated songs opposing peaceful protests of 2020.

May 19: Senior Belarusian official says constitutional vote will not lead to new protests

The head of the Belarusian administration claims that the country is preparing for a vote on constitution change, and new protests are not expected “despite the efforts from foreigners and the fugitive citizens to trigger the unrest”. He noted that experts are working to eliminate any risk of instability in the country.

Interesting Read

Professor Timothy Snyder’s Essays on Belarus:

Belarus (1/5): The Worst War
Belarus (2/5): Nation Next
Belarus (3/5): Two Fake Coups…
Belarus (4/5): The Next War
Belarus (5/5): Putin Chases Shadows

Yale historian Timothy Snyder argues that “a single enforced memory is a sign and a tool of authoritarianism.” He provides historical context for the events of the Second World War and comments on the recent shifts in popular memory challenging the authoritarian narrative. Additionally, Snyder addresses Lukashenko’s handover of power to Putin and Russian expansion in Belarus. He advances an argument for the existence of the “soft coup,” which manifests itself in Russia’s penetration of Belarusian media, state, and economy, as well as the liquidation of the foreign consulates and stage-managing of a constitutional transition. Snyder concludes that Putin faces the same predicament that Lukashenko faced last year and predicts a succession crisis in the upcoming 2021 Russia’s presidential elections.