Robust Economic Sanctions

On behalf of Belarusian Americans Communities, the Belarus Freedom Forum urges the U.S. government to implement the most robust economic sanctions to stop the escalation of political repressions in Belarus. We appreciate what the U.S. government has done already: personal sanctions on those responsible for violence and human rights violations and the recent announcement about sanctions on nine Belarusian state-controlled companies. Yet, these personal sanctions and announced economic sanctions have not been enough. We call for robust economic sanctions to end the escalating crackdown and force the regime to release political prisoners and restore political freedoms.

2020-21 Belarusian anti-regime protests have been unprecedented for Belarusian history in terms of their magnitude, persistence, and spread throughout the country. The widespread unrest shattered any illusion of popular support for Belarusian autocrat Alyaksandr Lukashenka, who has been in power for 26 years. The regime must rely on demonstrative violence and repressions to hold on to power. It is also making every effort to extinguish any independent civil society.

Only a united and immediate response from the international community to Belarus’s ongoing political crisis can stop the escalation of repressions. In the absence of decisive sanctions, dictators worldwide are appropriating Lukashenka’s methods to suppress disagreement.

For years, Lukashenka’s power rested on the rhetoric of promised stability, the regime’s power vertical, and Russia’s support. The carefully built power vertical is almost entirely loyal to Lukashenka. The loyalty of the officials is guaranteed by lavish monetary support, fear, and propaganda. In the rigid hierarchical system, officials have limited discretion and flexibility for individual decision-making. Simultaneously, any checks and balances on the presidential powers have been removed over the past two decades, subordinating the country’s judiciary and parliamentary systems.

Lukashenka’s power vertical operates as a financial pyramid: taxes, revenue from state-controlled enterprises, and financial schemes pay to its upper tier. Economic sanctions targeting the financial foundation of the power vertical would weaken it, helping the Belarusian people to sustain their nonviolent struggle. There are concerns that sanctions might affect ordinary people’s well-being – however, little trickles down to people who are paid the bare minimum in the state-controlled economy. The situation is made worse by the ongoing and relentless repressions against large groups of people.

2006 and 2011 economic sanctions have been exceptionally effective in forcing the regime to release political prisoners and stop further suppression of people’s political freedoms. At the same time, economic sanctions on Belarusian enterprises might be insufficient and dangerous on their own. Russian companies tied to the Putin administration have been aiming to buy major Belarusian companies such as Hrodna Azot and Belaruskali. Imposing sanctions on Belarusian enterprises and weakening them can consequently lead to the buyout by Russian companies. Linking sanctions for both Belarusian and Russian companies potentially participating in such transactions would prevent the buyout.

Personal sanctions, effective on middle-level officials, have a low impact on Lukashenka’s regime’s close circle. The sanctioned “wallets’’ of the Belarusian regime do not keep their money in European and American banks, do not officially own businesses or real estate outside Belarus, and are unlikely to travel to the U.S.

Targeted economic sanctions would aid in depleting the regime’s foreign currency holdings and affect its gold reserves, holding in check the illegitimate Lukashenka regime. Economic sanctions against the most significant export-oriented companies would be the most effective measure to force the regime to stop repressions, release political prisoners, and start the dialogue with the opposition. Belarusian people deserve to live in independent and democratic Belarus.

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