Key Events: May 31 - June 6
Raman Pratasevich, journalist kidnapped from hijacked Ryanair plane - coerced to do an interview on Belarus state television (ONT TV Channel/Reuters)
Top Stories
Jun 4: Detained Belarus dissident breaks down in state TV interview, renewing fears of coercion and torture
Footage of kidnapped journalist Raman Pratasevich that aired on Belarusian state television has raised concerns that he was being coerced to take part in political propaganda under duress. Opposition leader in exile Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya suggested that Pratasevich was beaten and tortured in prison to issue his statements, as well as apparent bruises and wounds on the wrists of the journalist can be seen during the interview.
Jun 2: The Belarusian ‘pressure chamber’ threat drove activist to attempt suicide
Belarus opposition activist Stsiapan Latypau stabbed himself in the throat with a pen during a court hearing after claiming that investigators had threatened to prosecute his family and neighbors had he not pleaded guilty. Before his trial, he was kept in a “pressure chamber.” According to human rights watchdogs and former inmates, Belarusian prisons and jails contain torture chambers. The threat of being sent to one prompts many prisoners to concede or to harm themselves.
Belarus and US
Jun 3: Belarus to cut US Embassy staff as part of retaliatory sanctions
Belarus has reduced the number of personnel permitted at the US Embassy in Minsk and tightened visa procedures for US citizens following US sanctions imposed on the country over its suppression of the opposition. A similar revocation occurred for the Agency for International Development (USAID). According to the Foreign Ministry’s spokesman Anatoly Glaz, these targeted measures send a clear message to the United States.
May 31: Members of the Media Freedom Coalition and the G7 Foreign Ministers condemn the unprecedented action by the Belarusian authorities in arresting independent journalist Raman Pratasevich and his companion, Sofia Sopega, after forcing a commercial aircraft to divert its path and land in Minsk. In response to the unprecedented air piracy and human rights violation in Belarus, the US reimposed sanctions against nine Belarusian state-owned enterprises. Considering the high risk of detentions COVID-19, the Bureau of Consular Affairs of the US Department of State advises not to travel to Belarus.
Jun 1: Senators make stop in Vilnius, call for Belarus to release dissident journalist
During a visit to Lithuania, a bipartisan group of US senators met with the opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. Senators demanded an immediate release of the Belarusian journalist captured during the forced landing of the Ryanair plane. US Senator Portman called to increase sanctions against the Lukashenka regime to set free and fair elections in Belarus.
Belarus and Europe
May 31: Estonian president: Belarusian people paying unimaginable price for freedom
While meeting with the opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid voiced her hopes to “see rapid change, because the terror that the people of Belarus live under on a daily basis, where the price of free speech can be freedom or life, is unimaginable, brutal and inhumane.”
Jun 2: Ethnic Poles freed from Belarus prison are in Poland, Warsaw says
Irena Biernacka, Maria Tiszkowska, and Anna Paniszewa, members of the ethnic Polish minority in Belarus, were recently released from jail. As a result of the Polish consular and diplomatic services, activists arrived in Poland on May 25.
Jun 4: EU bans Belarusian carriers from its airspace and airports
The EU Council imposed a ban on over-flight and airport access by any type of Belarusian carrier. The decision follows the forced landing of the Ryanair flight in Belarus and the arrest of the journalist Raman Pratasevich and Sofia Sapega.
Jun 6: NATO Chief says Belarus becoming ‘more and more dependent’ on Russia
Stoltenberg said that NATO follows the situation in Belarus very closely and that Russia and Belarus will be a key topic at the NATO meeting. He assured that NATO would defend any ally against threats from Belarus and Russia.
Jun 6: Interior Minister Agnė Bilotaitė says Belarus is waging hybrid war against Lithuania
Belarus has put pressure on Lithuania by contributing to the increasing number of illegal migrants. In the last five months, the number of illegal migrants crossing the Belarusian-Lithuanian border has doubled.
Analysis
Lukashenka made a strategic bet on China to reduce Belarus’ dependence on Russia in the 21st century. China’s strategic intentions towards the region were put to the test by both the current problems of the Lukashenka regime and the desire for deeper integration with Russia. In the wake of Belarusians’ protests in 2020, China refused to support Lukashenka either economically or politically, and opted to defer to Russian policy after the plane hijacking incident.
Jun 1: The West should raise the price of Putin’s Belarus plaything
Russian politics may seem mad at times, but when it comes to money it is surprisingly pragmatic Tadeusz Giczan, a nonresident fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), examines the pragmatic aspects of Russian economic policy. Giczan says it is impossible to get rid of Lukashenka without Russia, and “Russia’s last straw will most likely be a dramatic rise in the cost of project Lukashenka.” He suggests that the moment Lukashenka becomes too expensive for the Kremlin, the Russian ruling class would solve the Belarusian crisis on their own.
Jun 1: Kleptocracy Rules, OK. Belarus won this battle. Who will win the war?
Edward Lukas, the Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), examines Lukashenka as an authoritarian leader who exploits the weaknesses of democracies to his advantage.
Jun 3: Belarus plane hijacking snarls Biden’s hopes to repair strained US-Russia relationship
In addition to the already imposed sanctions on Belarusian enterprises and air carriers, Russia may need to be forced to pay a higher price for supporting the Belarusian regime to limit Lukashenka’s apparent impunity.
Belarus and Russia
Jun 2: Russian media boss drops the pretence and defends Belarus crackdown
Russian state-funded media outlets Russia Today (RT), and Sputnik congratulated strongman Lukashenka on the hijacking of the airliner and the arrest of the journalist Raman Pratasevich. According to the Russian independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta, Belarus state broadcasts adhere to the same style and speech pattern as the Russian state television newscasts “Vremia” and “Vesti”.
Jun 4: Putin seeks distance from Belarus turmoil and says Russia is ‘neutral’
Putin claims that Russia prefers to be “neutral” about the events in Belarus, noting that Lukashenka faces many “domestic” problems. Putin is under pressure for backing Lukashenka’s crackdown on protests. At the same time, Putin sees Lukashenka as the closest ally, and considers the downfall of Lukashenka as a political loss.
Repressions in Belarus
Jun 5: Prominent Belarusian political analyst flees country
A Belarusian political analyst, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Moscow Center, Anton Shraibman, whose voice is widely sought by the media, had to flee Belarus after his name surfaced in the televised interview given under duress by the detained journalist Raman Pratasevich. Shraibman knows that Pratasevich is a ‘hostage’ of Lukashenka and does not blame him.
Jun 1: Editor Marina Zolotova faces jail in ‘revenge for reporting on Belarus crackdown’
Tut.by’s editor, 43-year-old Marina Zotova, faces a maximum sentence of seven years in prison for alleged fraud. As part of an investigation into alleged tax evasion, police raided her home and TUT.BY’s offices in Minsk last month.
Jun 2: Associates of jailed Belarusian blogger Tsikhanouski given prison terms
Three associates of jailed blogger Syarhei Tsikhanouski were found guilty of organizing mass disorder and assaulting police. Uladzimer Kniha received four years in a maximum-security prison, Yauhen Raznichenka - three and a half years, and Dzmitry Furmanau two years in a general security prison. Syarhei Tsikhanouski is the husband of the opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.
Inside Belarus
Jun 1: Lukashenka warns West to pay heavy price for gas transit sanction threats
Upset at sanctions, Lukashenka claims that the West will pay a high price for trying to weaken the Belarusian economy. He suggests that if Europe decides to impose sanctions on the Yamal-Europe pipeline, it will have to deal with Russia.
Jun 1: Lukashenka: ‘Russian president pledged uninterrupted oil supplies to Belarus refineries’
After meeting with Putin, Lukashenka claimed that there are no problems with the oil supply for the Belarusian refineries. The Belarusian oil industry faces US sanctions that affect the oil companies and those who cooperate with them.
Jun 1: Belarus bans most citizens from going abroad
In a clear violation of the Constitution of the Republic of Belarus, Lukashenka’s regime restricts the Belarusians from leaving the country using the coronavirus pandemic as the justification. Only citizens with permanent residence in foreign countries may exit Belarus.
Interesting Reading
Viasna Human Rights Center: Human Rights Situation in Belarus: May 2021
BBC: The ‘kindness and propaganda’ of a life in Belarus
University of European Humanities: The university that Lukashenko sent into exile
David R. Marples: Developments in Belarus will define European-Russian ties for time to come