Key Events: June 28 - July 4
Love cannot be compelled - Artist: Lilia Kvatsabaya
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Jul 3: Lithuania declares state of emergency due to migration surge from Belarus
After detaining 150 illegal migrants who crossed the border from Belarus in one day, Lithuania declared a state of emergency. Lithuania government officials stated that the decision was made to access reserve state financing and find new ways to deal with the illegal immigration influx. The border tensions between Lithuania and Belarus are part of a standoff between Brussels and Minsk that escalated in May. So far this year, there was an increase of 822 undocumented immigrants, mostly from Iraq.
Jun 28: Belarus cuts cooperation on migration with EU over sanctions
Belarus suspended its participation in the EU’s Eastern Partnership program, stemming illegal migration to the EU. Belarus has also imposed a travel ban on unspecified EU officials, and asked the EU representative in Minsk to leave Belarus. The Belarusian authorities undertook those actions in retaliation for the new EU economic sanctions.
Jun 30: Belarus opposition calls on EU to close sanctions ‘loopholes’
The Belarusian opposition calls for stricter comprehensive economic sanctions on Belarus and regrets the EU decision not to apply sanctions retrospectively. The half measures and gradual approach in sanctions imposition the EU takes will not force Lukashenka to change his behavior, argues Franak Viačorka, an opposition politician and adviser to Tsikhanouskaya.
Jul 2: Lukashenka orders closure of Belarus border with Ukraine
Lukashenka ordered the closure of Belarus’ border with Ukraine in apparent retaliation for banning Belarus-registered aircraft from entering the Ukrainian airspace. He stated that an inflow of illegal weapons through the southern border necessitated the move, a claim that the Ukrainian side denies. Ukraine received no official notification on the border closure.
Jul 2: Twitter unblocks accounts of Belarus ’embassies’ it suspended
Twitter swiftly reversed its own decision to ban the “Belarusian People’s Embassies” accounts after they had apparently been accused of identity theft by the regime’s authorities. The news follows the reports about the regime’s attempts to step up pressure on the exiled Belarusian activists.
Jul 2: Belarus: Law Faculty student arrested over graduation speech
Amnesty International organization called on the Belarusian authorities to immediately release a recent graduate student Katsyaryna Vinnikava. Katsyaryna was arrested and is held in the notorious Akrescina jail for mentioning the names of dissident lawyers in her speech at the Belarusian law school graduation ceremony.
Analysis
Jul 1: Belarus leader has little to fear from EU sanctions – analysts
In spite of EU sanctions, Belarus strongman Alexander Lukashenka will be able to continue funding the economy and his security forces, rating agencies and analysts say. The state-owned Development Bank of Belarus, the only bank with outstanding Eurobonds, is not affected by the financial sanctions. Close ally Russia also provides the government with substantial financial support. The Lukashenka government can also rely on its gold and foreign currency reserves, which rose by nearly $500 million to $7.76 billion as of June 1 and are now at their highest level since last August.
Belarus and US
Jun 28: US to restrict travel to Belarus
The Bureau of the Consular Affairs of the US Department of State has issued a Level 4 Travel Advisory: Do not travel to Belarus. Same time, the US Department of Transportation issued an order banning the sale of plane tickets to and from Belarus, citing the US foreign policy interests. The order allows the case-by-case exceptions for humanitarian or national-security reasons.
Jul 2: US may allocate $30 mln to support Belarus civil society, independent media, human rights defenders
The United State House Committee on Appropriations has approved the scaling-up of financial assistance rendered to Belarusian civil society. The next step is putting the issue of support for Belarusian civil society to a vote in the US Senate.
Belarus and Europe
Jun 28: Białystok opens Belarusian refugee centre
Poland has opened a refugee center in Białystok for the Belarusians fleeing the persecution in Belarus. The government of Poland co-financed the center, which offers help with documents, work, language courses, and financial aid.
Jun 28: EU pulls its punches on Belarus sanctions
The sectoral sanctions imposed on Belarus by the EU last week appear to lack potency when compared to the initial expectations. This in part may be explained by the desire to influence the Lukashenka’s regime into changing its policies by keeping the pressure on through the threat of even tougher repercussions. Another goal is to ensure that Russia cannot benefit from the new policies by stiffening completion, especially in the potash industry.
Jun 29: Czechs to set up representative office for Belarusian opposition
The Czech Republic has agreed to establish an official office in Prague for the Belarusian opposition after opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya visited Prague. The Belarusian opposition already has similar offices in Lithuania and Poland.
Jun 29: Belarus orders two German educational institutions to halt work
Germany regrets the decision of the Belarusian authorities to terminate the projects of the Goethe Institute and the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) in Belarus and to deny the opportunity for the Belarusian citizens to participate in the cultural activities. The German Foreign Ministry calls on the Belarusian authorities to start the national dialogue and respond to the demands of the protest movement.
Repressions in Belarus
Jun 28: Leading Belarusian news site removes social media archive to protect staff and readers
An independent Belarusian news site TUT.BY temporarily hid its social media archives in response to a possible criminal probe to protect its staff and readers from the persecution by the Belarusian authorities. Fifteen journalists of the TUT.BY were detained, and the company’s materials are about to be recognized as extremist.
Jun 29: Journalist Dzyanis Ivashyn gets heart attack behind bars
Detained on March 12, political prisoner Dzyanis Ivashyn, a Hrodna-based journalist, underwent a cardiac seizure in a disciplinary cell. Ivashyn is the author of an investigative report about former soldiers of the Ukrainian security forces unit Berkut taking part in the brutal crackdown on Belarusian protesters. In her appeal to the jailors, his mother Liudmila Ivashina wrote: “You realize that you are fully responsible for the LIFE and HEALTH of Dzyanis Ivashyn as well as for all those whom you unfairly and illegally keep in your cells.”
34-year-old Minsker Volha Sinyalyova who terminated an apartment lease contract with prosecutor assistant Alina Kasyanchyk was found guilty and sentenced to two years of restriction of liberty without being sent to a correctional facility. Volha Sinyalyova is mother of two minor children; currently, she is on maternity leave. Prosecutor assistant Alina Kasyancyk gained notoriety in the course of the trial of Belsat TV journalists Katsyaryna Andreeva and Darya Chultsova.
Jun 30: Belarus authorities accuse imprisoned media expert Andrey Alyaksandrau of high treason
Arrested journalist and political prisoner Andrey Alyaksandrau was charged with high treason (Article 356-1 of the Criminal Code). The defendant may face up to 15 years in prison if found guilty under this article. Alyaksandrau and his girlfriend Iryna Zlobina were arrested on January 12 as suspects in a criminal case initiated under Article 342-2 (‘organisation and preparation of actions that grossly violate public order, financing or other support of such activity’).
Belarus and Russia
June 30: Russian national jailed in Belarus asks Putin to revoke his citizenship
Dmitry Popov, a Russian national facing up to 15 years in prison in Belarus, has asked President Vladimir Putin to revoke his Russian citizenship. “I don’t want a passport from a state that sacrifices its citizens to another state,” Popov wrote in a letter to his sister from jail.
Jul 3: Putin and Lukashenka discuss sanctions and military cooperation
Putin and Lukashenka discussed economic cooperation between the two countries in the context of the Western sanctions. The development of military-technical cooperation, security issues, energy prices, Belarusian goods in Russian markets, opening more Belavia flights to Russia, especially to Sochi, Krasnodar, and Anapa and the issue of lifting restrictions on crossing the Russian-Belarusian border by land transport were the matters discussed during the call.
Inside Belarus
Jun 28: ‘Damage was done’. Belarus, where Lukashenka dismissed COVID-19, now struggles to vaccinate
The healthcare situation in Belarus is catastrophic. The doctors are fighting the virus despite state-run propaganda, no lockdown measures, and ill-equipped hospitals. The authorities downplay the Covid infection and death rates. The vaccination rate of 4% is lowest in Europe.
Jun 28: Belarus IT sector hit by exodus after post-vote crackdown
In the past, Hi-Tech Parks (HTP) in Belarus had attracted over 1,000 tech firms and over 70,000 individual workers. However, now the industry faces deep uncertainty after a political crisis has led to up to 15,000 IT workers leaving Belarus. There are some companies that have shuttered their entire operations, such as PandaDoc, a sales process software company founded in Minsk, which relocated dozens of its employees to neighboring countries.
Jun 29: Belarus’ wood exports to Kazakhstan up by over 20%
Companies affiliated with Belsbumprom increased exports to Kazakhstan by 28.7% in January-April 2021. Belarus exports to Kazakhstan upholstered furniture, solid wood furniture, chipboards, fiberboards, plywood, wooden windows and doors, paper, cardboard, and sawn timber, among other items.
Jun 30: Kazakhstan reaches tentative sanctions ducking oil deal with Belarus
Kazakhstan is ready to fill the gap left by Western sanctions that are cutting off Belarus from Russian oil supplies. Kazakh Prime Minister Askar Mamin and his visiting counterpart, Roman Golovchenko, reached the tentative agreement during their meeting in Nur-Sultan on June 28. As a final question, Kazakhstan needs to decide if it is willing to provoke the ire of the United States and its European partners by offering assistance to Minsk.
Jul 1: Belarus raises export duties on oil, petroleum products
A new order was issued by Belarus’ Council of Ministers on July 1st, increasing export duties on oil products that leave the territory of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The increases have affected crude oil and some derivative oil products categories.