Five-Year Anniversary of the 2020 Belarusian Protests: Belarus Must Not Be Overlooked

Key takeaways for the U.S. government:

• The fight for a free Belarus has not subsided.
• Deter Belarus from engaging in Russia’s war against Ukraine and from serving as a staging ground for future Russian aggression against NATO.
• Maintain pressure on the Lukashenka regime to release political prisoners and end the repressions.
• Be prepared to impose significant costs if Lukashenka fails to fulfill these expectations.

Five years after the Belarusian people rose up in unprecedented numbers to protest against fraudulent elections, their commitment to democracy in the country remains unbroken. Since August 2020, Belarusians have continued to resist the Lukashenka regime with courage and dignity. Despite brutal crackdowns, imprisonment, torture, and forced exile, the fight for a free Belarus has not subsided.

Attaining free, democratic, and independent Belarus, however, is a tenuous task. Propped up by Russia, Lukashenka has established totalitarian control in Belarus, engaged in international terrorism and transnational repressions, weaponized the migrant crisis on the Eastern flanks of NATO, allowed deployment of Russia’s nuclear weapons in Belarus, and facilitated Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, making Belarus an instrument of Russia’s imperial agenda.

Just as Lukashenka’s Belarus was key to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the country remains a critical staging ground for Russia’s provocations and escalating aggression against NATO. A potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine will not last without the complete withdrawal of Russian forces and nuclear weapons from Belarus, as well as reestablishing the autonomy of Belarusian military from Kremlin and reducing Russia’s control over Belarus.

It is also imperative to alleviate the suffering of more than 1200 political prisoners, the highest per capita population of political prisoners in the world. The recent release of Siarhei Tsikhanouski with a group of other political prisoners this year was a significant achievement and a testament to sustained international pressure. But the release of a small group from a vast population of political prisoners did not signify a policy change in Belarus. The arrests have never stopped, and for every person freed, many more have been prosecuted.

To secure a fair and lasting peace in Ukraine, the Trump Administration must not overlook Belarus. President Trump should deter Belarus from engaging in Russia’s war against Ukraine and from serving as a staging ground for future Russian aggression against NATO. The Trump administration must maintain pressure on the Lukashenka regime to release of political prisoners and end the repressions. The White House has to be prepared to impose significant costs if Lukashenka fails to fulfill these expectations. Only the combination of strength and diplomacy can achieve the Administration’s goals for the region.